The asteroid 2024 years4, once considered the risk of greater impact for the earth ever registered, is back in the center of attention, this time due to a slight increase in the possibility that the Moon may affect in 2032.
Although now it is too far to observe the earth, the letter of the asteroids appeared in May in May for the James Webb space telescope (JWST). Using data from the nearby infrared chamber of the telescope, a team led by Andy Rivkin, from the Johns Hopkins applied physics laboratory, the refined predictions where 2024 years 4 will be on December 22, 2032 for almost 20%. That revised trajectory pushed the probabilities or a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to NASA update.
“As the data enter, it is normal for the probability of impact to evolve,” reads the statement. Even if a collision occurs, “it would not alter the orbit of the moon.”
The astronomer Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru, agrees that the moon is safe, noting that a collision with the moon “will not be a reason for concern” because it is inspired from space from space from space from space from space from space from space from any of anyone who arrives in space near the space. ”
First detected on December 27 of last year, it is estimated that 2024 years 4 are approximately 174 to 220 feet long (53 to 67 meters), or approximately the size of a 10 -story building. The asteroid quickly caught the headlines for having more than 1% possibilities of land strike, the highest recorded for any large asteroid. The follow -up observations in January and February saw the risk of impact of 1.2% to a peak or 3.1%.
The projected trajectory of the asteroid at that time suggested that it could be explosion damage in a large zone of potential impact, tension in the Eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa and southern Asia. If it enters the Earth’s atmosphere on the ocean, NASA estimated that it is unlikely that it triggers significant tsunamis, but an outbreak of air on the windows of the city populated and causes minor structural damage.
However, the impact risk decreased sharply as additional orbital data arrived. By February 19, the probability had fallen to 1.5%, and then 0.3% the next day. On February 24, NASA announced an officer “all clear” official in social networks, informing that the probability of impact had decreased to only 0.004% and that the asteroid “is expected to pass safely through the earth in 2032”.
Since then, a subsequent analysis has allowed scientists to rule out any risk to the land, not only in 2032 but also of all future nearby approaches. Telescopes data in Chile and Hawaii recently suggested that the space rock originated in the main central belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually changed to an orbit close to earth.
Since mid -April, the asteroid has been too far and too weak to be seen from Earth. It will return to the view in 2028, giving scientists another opportunity to observe the asteroid and even more refine their orbit using JWST and terrestrial telescopes. In particular, scientists will aim to collect more data on their form and composition, which are key factors to understand both behavior and possible impact effects.
Although 2024 years no longer raises any danger, it gave scientists a rare opportunity and the real world to rehearse the total scope of the planetary defense strategy, from the initial detection and risk analysis to public messaging. It was “a real end of extreme exercise” for how we could respond to a dangerous asteroid potentially in the future, Kumar said.
“2024 years 4 is a custom -made asteroid for planetary defense efforts,” he said. “It has everything that is needed to get our attention.”