The markets have been loving the last 180 in Commerce of Donald Trump. Now it seems to be softer with the tariffs after The markets rebelled against their previous hard line approach.
But in money has learned that business leaders, those who make decisions about investment spending, as well as the hiring and dismissal of people, remain much less optimistic about the commercial situation.
They still bet on a minor miracle to reduce offers in a timely manner before the economy really goes sideways.
Yes, agreements with less economic countries could materialize any day. But given, given what they know about our most important commercial partner, China, it is possible that an agreement never materializes or only does it after months of intense negotiations.
In other words, despite all the happy talks that leave the Trump team, an economic deceleration and a probable recession are beginning to set the price of their commercial models.
The losses of jobs attacked to the people Trump consider that their base, Central America, is on the cards.
They are not making them very public with these fears for many reasons, including they do not want to enliven the anger of the gift, as in our famous volatile president, Donald Trump. They have the account of their investment bankers how they feel, and those investment bankers tell me, for what I can tell you.
To be fair, another reason why they do not want to convey their feelings is that the CEOs say that there is a small but realistic possibility that Trump can achieve not only the art of the agreement, but that the “art of the treatment of the century” has learned in money.
He could simply use his charm to court the Chinese President XI to reform his predatory and mercantilist economy and let companies in their markets and their Burgeonon consumer base.
The rest of the world, such as the EU and the United Kingdom, could also see that crossing the US, with their own mass economy based on consumption, is a losing formula.
The possibility that Trump challenges probabilities as he has done so many times in his career and political career is the reason he has not seen large companies to announce significant dismissals despite all volatility.
“The CEO with whom I am speaking give Give it a 20% chance that Trump achieves something positive,” said a Wall Street CEO that regularly speaks of the doses of the CEO in the main commercial movements.
“Portan” who still did something eruption because they don’t want to be established. They are children or listed at this time. “
One thing is safe: the US CEOs are in the most adjusted place since perhaps the financial crisis of 2007, 2008 and early 2009, when the banking system was on the edge and stopped almost before the rescues of the government.
Global trade was a problem that thought they really didn’t worry. It was more less established in years of stone thinking of multilateral commercial agreements.
Once elected president, Trump changed all that in a matter of days, of course, fulfilling his promise to “free” the country from what he called unfair trade agreements and return manufacturing to the oxide belt and Midryy Wison or use.
The White House argues that tariffs pay themselves; The money will be used to pay the debt. The manufacture is obliged to return to the country to be careless to China and other places.
The CEO class says that this could be the case in the long and long career, but in the short and middle race (such as saying years, the years) the rates will change the economy. Their costs are passed to consumers, creating greater inflation. Reciprocal tariffs will result in US companies staying out of foreign markets. That will reduce growth and could lead to a recession that they say is here or get quickly.
Worse, CEO cares about the lack of method for commercial madness. After announcing Plate ratesTrump instituted a “pause” in all countries stating that China, more recently, said that tariffs against China won very partners, but then said that perhaps they do not bend their will.
In the midst of confusion, equally friendly business partners were signed in the final result despite the Treasury Secretary, Besent, they say they are close to agreements with India, Japan, South Korea and Australia.
Yes, a little crazy. In this environment, companies do not know how to get products abroad, how much it will cost them. China is an important commercial partner; Despite everything that is discussed about the country’s protectionism, they are great buyers of American agriculture.
I know, all this seems contrary to the White House turn that commercial wars are coming to an end, which is equal to China. “Unsustainable”, according to Besent. Deepen and you will see that Besent was not so sure that we are ready to deal with China or that Xi is ready to deal with us.
Xi has not said anything to know that he doesn’t have to do it; He is president of life and won the political consequences if the war of the rate triggers inflation and a recession.
Another factor: CEO who know one or two things about dealing with China say that their leadership hate losing their face, partly towards the West, a persistent change on the colonialism of the nineteenth century. The speleology immediately to Trump in commerce would be to lose his face, just as he would lose his face so that Trump does a 180 on the greatest political movement since he was chosen.
The stagnation seems to be on the cards, the CEOs are telling their bankers. Now you know why companies are paralyzed, and Trump’s probabilities won to be able to achieve the art of the agreement of the century.
