National surveys in Canada published on Wednesday and Thursday show that the Liberal Left Party clung to a slimming advantage against its conservative challenges, one to which a pollster referred to a “marginal draw” compared to the largest leadership a week ago.
Canada is scheduled to celebrate a general election on April 28 aimed at finding a replacement for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a radical leftist who ruled for a decade. Canadian voters already cast their vote last weekend an early voting period; In accordance with the government agency that makes elections, a record 7.3 million The Canadians voted virtual.
Trudeau resigned in January after a shameful visit To the farm of President Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago at the end of 2024, after which Trump made fun of him as the “governor” of the “state” of Canada and threatened to annex the country. The liberals chose Mark Carney, a prior experienced finance professional in politics, to succeed Trudeau. His closest rival is the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, who has directed a campaign focused on making life for Canadians more affordable and limiting government spending.
A Major Campaign Issue This Year, Given The Context of Trudeau’s Demise, Is Trump’s Threats to Annex Canada and the Impression of Tariffs on The Country In Response to Its Poor Handling of Border Security, Failure Tow Proxanyl traffic, and and proxanyl traffic, and and proxanyl traffic, and and proxanyl traffic, and and proxanyl traffic, and and proxanyl traffic, and and and traffic of proxanyl, and proxanyl traffic and proxanyl traffic. Carney has campaigned almost to affirm that she is the most difficult negotiator and the only one who could contain the threat of Trump perceived. Trump himself has said publicly, however, that “would prefer” to work with a liberal government and belittled Pailievre personally as acting “stupidly.”
Until Thursday, the CBC Average National surveys indicates that liberals are likely to win the elections. The average shows that 42.2 percent of voters support the Liberal Party, while 38.5 intend to vote for conservatives. The new Democratic Party (NDP), the closest competition of the liberals to their left, is attracting 8.8 percent support – A dramatic minimum that has motivated Call the NDP leader Jagmeet Singh to resign.
“The liberals still have a broader advantage of what they had in the last two elections and are favored to win the greatest amount of seats thanks to their durable potential clients in Ontario, Quebec, BC and the Atlantic of Canada,” the CBC said.
However, some of the individual surveys used to elaborate the average CBC, documented slight falls in support to liberals, slight increases in support for conservatives or both. Innovative Research Group, a voting firm, described The current state of races as a “marginal draw” from their last surveys.
“What has arisen is that both main matches are grouped around 38/39%,” he said innovative. “Looking at all [latest] Surveys in order of time, we find that liberals with 39%, 36%and 38%, and the CPC at 38%, 41%and 38%. “
Link strategies, which most recently published a survey on Wednesday, similarly documented one “Stricter race“42 percent liberal support for 39 percent for conservatives. It warned, however, that last minute developments could easily restore liberal lead or destroy it.
Some observers of the race have looked at other predictors outside of traditional surveys in an attempt to understand the race. He National Post reported On Thursday, the Fanduel betting website, which can only operate legal in Canada in Ontario, seems that about 70 percent of the players make bets that predict a Pailievre victory over Carney.
“The company says that more than 80 percent of the conservative bets were placed after March 25, when the elections were underway and the liberals were moving away as favorites.” Mail Observed.
The conservatives were enjoying a formidable advantage in January, when Trudeau remained prime minister and staggering for his meeting with Trump. TO survey Due to the tasks of the Ipsos firm in January they found an advantage of 26 points for Poilievre over Trudeau.
At the end of February, before Carney became Prime Minister, but after Trudeau resigned, Ipsos base That 38 percent of Canadians supported the liberals, compared to 36 percent for conservatives. Both parties have seen increases in support at the expense of the NDP and other third parties, such as the Quebecois block.
Talking with Reuters in Thorsday, professor at the University of Manitoba Paul Thomas attributed Liberal narrowing partly leads to the diminished panic on Trump’s tariff policy in the country.
“The feeling of crisis has probably decreased a bit,” he suggested.
Liberal and conservative parties published Your policy platforms in the last two weeks. Carney published his Saturday, since the early vote was underway, and Pailievre published Tuesday. The liberal platform focus Largely on spending on social programs, universal medical care and security network policies to protect companies from Trump ESPEAZEED tariffs but did not impose. The platform proposes an increase in government spending to $ 130 billion.
In contrast, Pailievre’s party is proponent Significantly reduce government programs, reduce taxes and increase income through the imposition of tariffs in the United States. The conservatives affirmed that their plan would reduce the Canadian deficit by 70 percent. The platform also contains provisions to increase legal punishment for violent criminals and increase border security measures.
