Weekly housing inventory data
In recent years, our inventory data has constantly grown in August, but this year has. Initially I thought we had not yet reached the peak of the active inventory in 2025, but I have shown that it is wrong. Now we are entering the phase where the inventory generally experiences its seasonal decline.
The interesting thing is that the growth of the inventory was excellent earlier this year, but I noticed a change in housing dynamics in mid -June. Let’s connect the points:
– Our new listing data reached their maximum point on May 23, which is the early period of time in the recent history that occurs. In addition, we do not experience a significant duration of growth in the peak months of 2025.
– Also in May, some vendors did not get the price they wanted and began to withdraw their listings. Remember, most vendors are also housing buyers, and high mortgage rates probably discouraged some of the housing vendors this year to keep their homes in the market.
– Then, the mortgage rates began to increase, and now they have one leg below the key level of 6.64% for nine consecutive weeks, which has facilitated the best nine weeks of purchase applications data. The demand has recovered a little, eliminating the market supply more quickly.
Keep it as simple as that, and you can explain why the inventory growth rate was excellent at the beginning of the year, but it really began to decrease at the midpoint in June.
- Change of weekly inventory (from September 26 to October 3): the inventory increased from 862,575 to 863,972
- The same week last year (from September 27 to October 4): the inventory increased from 731,010 to 734,257
New listing data
The new listing data reached the duration of the week of May 23 of this year, reaching a total of 83,143 listings. Since then, the number of new lists has gradually decreased. This has a leg a significant factor to decelerate the growth of the inventory of its strong beginning. In general, we see new listing data between 80,000 and 100,000 dead in seasonal peak months, which really did not happen this year.
For a certain perspective, the duration of the years of the shock of the real estate bubble, the new listings were scaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here are the new listing data last week in the last two years:
- 2025: 64,328
- 2024: 60,629
Price logging percentage
In an average year, approximately one third of houses experience price reductions. The lowest prices housing in their sale when inventory levels and mortgage increase remain high, so the percentage of price reductions is higher in 2025 than last year.
For my price forecast of 2025, I anticipated a modest increase in homes of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will probably see negative prices in the Royal Home. In 2024, my prognosis of an increase of 2.33% was inaccurate, mainly because rates fell to about 6% and demand improved in the second half of the year. As a result, housing prices increased by 4% in 2024. The increase in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth prognosis by 2025. This data line is also recently cooled.
Price cut percentage last week during the last two years:
10 -year performance and mortgage rates
In my prognosis of 2025, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
- 10 -year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%
Last week it was jobs, but with the closure of the government, we made the final work reports of the week, which included unemployment claims on Thursday and the Big Bls Jobs report on Friday, that the Fed tracks so closely. The 10 -year yield did not have a crazy week and the week ended with 4.12%.
The mortgage rates fell slightly this week from 6.38% to 6.34%, the two jobs of jobs we had that we had this week last week, the inauguration of the work and the ADP report, were soft, which kept a member with bond yields this week.
Mortgage Spreads
Mortgage differentials have been the best history for mortgage rates in 2025. At one time this year, we were just 0.35% of normal differential levels, and we reached 0.2% of the basic points of my maximum improvement prognosis by 2025 for mortgage spans.
Historical mortgage differentials have oscillated between 1.60% and 1.80%. If today’s differentials were bathrooms as they were in the 2023 peak, mortgage rates would currently be 0.91% higher. On the contrary, if the differentials return to their normal range, the mortgage rates would be 0.59% to 0.39% lower than the current level. Normal differentials would mean mortgage rates by 5.75% to 5.95% today.
Buy application data
The purchase application data last week decreased from 1% week to week, while showing 16% growth a year.
Here are the weekly data for 2025 so far:
- 19 positive readings
- 13 negative readings
- 6 flat impressions
- 35 consecutive weeks of positive data year after year
- 22 consecutive two -digit growth on the year
Since the mortgage rates fell below 6.64% and headed towards 6%, the key level that I have spoken for years, the weekly data have:
- 7 positive week
- 2 negative week
- 9 consecutive two -digit growth on the year
Usually, we require approximately 12-14 weeks or data from weekly and consistent weekly purchase applications to have a material impact. The last nine weeks have been the best of the year in terms of week by week data. Purchase applications look at 30-90 days at sales.
Weekly pending sales
Our weekly sales of pending housing provide a vision of a week to week in the data, Althegh pending sales can be influenced by holidays and short -term fluctuations. We are still showing a slight growth year after year in this line of data. Pending sales data will generally be reflected in the existing housing sales report 30-60 days after the sale is final. Last week, our weekly sales data of weekly pending housing for this calendar year since the collapse of the market in 2022.
Weekly pending sales last week:
- 2025: 64,232
- 2024: 61.043
Next week: the fed speeches and the government’s closure news?
Assuming that the government remains closed, we won the unemployment claims report. We will still have some bond auctions and a multitude of members of the Fed they speak. In the economic front, it will not change much for the weekly calendar, but we will closely monitor any news about the reopening of the government.
In the front of the housing, the harder this closure, the more delays can occur in the closures. It is a great week to see flickers of the first party, but the following week is the week of inflation, and the inflation reports of the CPI and PPI come from the government, so if the closure continues, we win the data lines to inform.
