I have long argued that to do Texas Making state races consistently competitive for Democrats requires time, patience, and sustained, multi-cycle investment. And I still believe that’s true. But the last decade of Texas politics has also been marked by big swings in Democratic vote share in state and presidential elections, and opportunities sometimes arise at unexpected times. Right now, the data and political dynamics suggest something few could have predicted even a year ago: 2026 offers Democrats a rare short-term opportunity to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.
I know, I know, we’ve heard this story before, but hear me out. The 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be one where the stars could align for a Democratic victory. Texans, and especially Latinos, are angry at Donald Trump and his immigration policies, a national backlash against the administration is taking shape, and strong Democratic candidates are prepared to take on a wounded Republican challenger.
Earlier this year, I held in He Washington Post That finding a way to win Texas is a necessity for Democrats at the presidential level, especially since Democratic-leaning states are expected to lose Electoral College votes, and Republican-leaning states are expected to gain them, following the 2030 Census. Therefore, those of us seeking to make the Lone Star State reliably competitive should plan for the long term. But the construction of strategic and lasting infrastructure does not mean ruling out the year 2026 either because we are looking too far away; It means being prepared to strike when a target that not long ago seemed light years away begins to move within range.
That moment may be just arriving.
During the most recent election cycle, immigration and the border finished off The concerns of Texas voters, second only to the costs of living and inflation. But the Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) vote of late August shows that Texans are divided over Trump’s hardline immigration policy now that it is in effect.
Forty-seven percent of Texas voters indicate support for recent increases in raids, arrests and other ICE activities, while 46 percent oppose them. That opposition runs deep among Democrats (77 percent), but also includes a majority, 52 percent, of independent voters, 33 percent of whom “strongly” disagree with ICE’s actions.
Meanwhile, 46 percent of Texans say Trump’s immigration enforcement has gone “too far,” while 47 percent believe he is “doing exactly what he was elected to do.” Among independents, a majority think the administration has gone “too far” (47 percent to 41 percent).
Perhaps the most significant electoral development in 2024 was Trump’s decision. progress among Latino voters, who played a crucial role in his victory. That change was very evident in Texas, where Trump increased his share of the Latino vote by a impressive 13 points compared to 2020. Whether Latino voters’ shift toward the Republican Party will prove to be a long-lasting phenomenon or specific to 2024 is one of the biggest questions facing Democrats today.
While it’s impossible to definitively answer that question at this point, early data suggests that Trump’s new lead among Latino voters is already eroding. Latino Texans express particularly strong disapproval of Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement: 65 percent oppose recent ICE activity, and 63 percent say immigration enforcement under Trump has gone too far. And polls from the Texas Politics Project show that Trump’s approval rating among Latinos in the state fell from -2 in Feb to -33 inches August – a drop of 31 points. This slip reflects national trends and the TPOR poll, which shows Trump at -30 favorability rating in August among Texas Latinos.
Trump is not only unpopular among Latinos in Texas. It is below the level of all demographic groups statewide, with a favorability rating that has fallen from +12 just after the choice to -1 in. August. 52 percent of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him, as do 10 percent of his own 2024 voters.
Furthermore, the surveys sample that in a generic vote, Republicans lead Democrats by just 5 percent in the Senate race. (The numbers are similar for the gubernatorial and attorney general races, with a Republican advantage of just 3 to 6 percent in both.) If the Texas Senate race were held now, 39 percent of independents would vote for the Democratic candidate, compared to 35 percent who would vote for the Republican.
During his first term, Trump’s unpopularity contributed to sweeping Republican defeats in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats gained 41 congressional seats and regained control of the House. In 2026, Trump could once again be a millstone around Republicans’ necks. When it comes to the 2026 Senate race in Texas, Democrats are shaping up to have a strong general election candidate.
US Representative Colin Allredwho beat Kamala Harris by 5.3 points in her 2024 race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, walked out the door in July with a strong and anti-system message while now seeking to replace the senator. John Cornyn. In August, state Rep. James Talarico – one of the most important in the party Unique and compelling rising stars – threw his hat into the ring and quickly proved himself to be a formidable fundraiser capable of garnering national attention. Either man will be well positioned against the eventual Republican nominee, who will enter the general election weakened by what is sure to be a divisive and painful primary battle between the scandal-plagued State Attorney General and Ken Paxton (the current MAGA front-runner), unpopular incumbent Cornyn (the establishment pick), or U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (currently seen as a spoiler likely to split the anti-Cornyn vote).
We do not know if these favorable conditions will occur again in future elections. While the Democratic vote share in Texas has been on an upward trajectory since 2012, the 2024 elections made clear that progress in the state is not linear. And these windows haven’t opened often for Democrats in Texas, at least not in recent decades.
As head of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure FundMy north star is building the infrastructure Democrats need to compete sustainably in Texas. That work will take more than a year and must continue. The 2026 state election is close and likely to stay that way. Even in the best-case scenario, a Democratic victory in Texas will be narrow. But it’s also true that the Democratic ecosystem, in Texas and nationally, must be agile enough to recognize an opportunity and bold enough to seize it. Data shows the stars may be aligning for Democrats in Texas ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. It’s time to get serious.
Luke Warford is a founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a Texas-based political action committee.
