The price of XRP (XRP) fell below $1.50 over the weekend, its lowest level in over 14 months. Now, a bearish technical setup on the charts suggests that the downtrend may extend throughout February.
Key takeaways:
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XRP’s bearish pennant on the four-hour chart is pointing at $1.22.
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XRP futures open interest fell to $2.61 billion, giving some hope to the bulls.
XRP Price Chart Shows Textbook Bearish Pennant
On Saturday, XRP price fell around 14% from a high of $1.75 to a low of $1.50, losing the $1.60 support level for the first time since November 2024.
The latest decline has put it in the breakout phase of its bearish pennant setup, as shown on the four-hour chart below.
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XRP fell below the pennant’s lower trend line on Tuesday and then recovered to retest it as support. The price is likely to fall further if the retest fails and a four-hour candle closes below this level at $1.58.
The measured target of the bearish pennant, calculated by adding the height of the initial drop to the breakout point, is $1.22, representing a 23% drop from the current price.
XRP’s recovery to $2.40 in January turned out to be a “fake” as the price continued to form “price formed new lower lows,” pseudonymous analyst AltCryptoGems said in a recent post on X, adding:
“The downtrend remains intact and we are on the brink of a disastrous collapse into a huge unsupported zone.”
Trader and investor Alex Clay said that after breaking the support line of a double bottom pattern at $1.60, the path is now clear for a drop towards $1 or lower.
As Cointelegraph reported, XRP’s next major support level is near its aggregate realized price at $1.48. If this level is missed, the average holder would be underwater, a setup that closely resembles the 2022 bear phase that ultimately ended in a 50% drop towards $0.30.
XRP buyers take a step back
The 90-day spot takers’ cumulative volume delta (CVD), a metric that tracks whether market orders are driven by buyers or sellers, reveals that buy orders (buy from takers) have been declining sharply since early January.
While demand-side pressure has dominated the order book since November 2025, purchase orders have fallen sharply in the last 30 days, according to CryptoQuant.
This indicates either enthusiasm or exhaustion among XRP investors, indicating reduced bullish momentum and increased downside risk to the price.
Previous sharp drops in spot CVDs have been accompanied by price drops of 28% to 50% in a matter of weeks.
However, in the current downtrend, one hope for bulls is the decline in XRP futures open interest (OI). It has fallen sharply to $2.61 billion on Wednesday, from $4.55 billion on Jan. 6.
When the OI decreases in combination with falling prices, it indicates a weakening of the downtrend or a possible trend reversal.
This could provide some fuel for the bulls to test the important overhead resistance around $1.85, a level that served as support for most of 2025.
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