Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) may rise around 25% in the coming months as its richest group of whales become profitable for the first time since early February.
Key takeaways:
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ETH gained 25% in three months and 50% in six months on average after major whales returned to profit in previous cycles.
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Ether could surpass $2,750 in June if the on-chain whale metric signal holds.
Whale Metric Indicates ETH Is Already Bottoming
The unrealized profit rate for wallets containing more than 100,000 ETH has returned to above zero, according to data resource CryptoQuant. In other words, this cohort of whales is no longer based on aggregate losses on paper.
In the past, similar transitions to a “profitable state marked the starting point of an uptrend,” said network analyst CW.
ETH generated returns of almost 25% on average three months after the whale ratio turned positive. Similarly, its price gained approximately 50% after six months and 300% after one year of the signal.
The price action suggests that once the major ETH whales return to aggregate profits, they will face less pressure to sell defensively. At the same time, the change may strengthen broader market confidence by signaling renewed conviction among the wealthiest ETH holders.
ETH may head towards the $2,750 area in June and above $3,200 in September if the historical post-signal pattern holds.
Related: First Ethereum Whales Rebuild Their Stack with $19.5 Million in ETH Purchases
Still, the whale ratio metric is not perfect. In 2018, for example, ETH fell 17.5% in the month following a similar reversal and ultimately fell almost 70%.
On-chain data caps Ether upside at $2,640
Another on-chain signal is strengthening Ethereum’s recovery case.
Glassnode data shows ETH recovering from its lower MVRV deviation band (blue), a setup similar to Q2 2022 and Q2 2025, when the price recovered from undervalued levels and rose back above the realized price.
At the current pace, ETH remains below its realized price (purple) at $2,353, which remains the first key recovery level. A break above that threshold could open the door towards the -0.5 sigma band (teal) near $2,640.
On the downside, failing to recover the realized price could keep ETH exposed to a retest of the lower deviation band near $1,651.
Ethereum technical data rises back above $2,600
From a technical perspective, ETH has broken out of its ascending triangle pattern and is now pulling back towards the former resistance trend line.
These retests are common after breakouts, as markets often revisit the breakout level to confirm that it has become new support.
Ether could resume its recovery towards the triangle’s measured bullish target around $2,625 or higher if the upper trendline holds as support.
That level is also within the broader on-chain recovery range outlined by Glassnode’s MVRV bands, adding confluence to the bullish setup.
On the other hand, a failed retest would weaken the breakout structure and risk sending ETH back to the lower support zone near $1,950-$2,000.
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