This has been a fascinating NBA season in many ways, but especially when it comes to the various award races. Even though the regular season is almost complete, some of the offers for these categories are coming to an end.
This year’s Sixth Man of the Year debate is no exception. In most years, we usually have a pretty obvious candidate. However, in this situation, injuries have forced some of the best bench players to start too many games to qualify (i.e. Payton Pritchard).
That said, the race has come down to two main candidates: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Keldon Johnson. According to popular sportsbooks like FanDuel, they are the only two players with realistic odds of taking home the crown.
But which of these two gentlemen is more deserving of the award? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
The raw statistics favor Jáquez. This season, he has higher PPG, APG, and actions (steals and blocks) per game, and his RPG (5.1) is nearly identical to Johnson’s (5.4). However, Jaime also plays almost five more minutes per game than Johnson, so it’s not necessarily fair to compare these two without adjusting for playing time.
To do this, we will look at points per 75 possessions, rebound rates (both offensive and defensive), assist rate, and action rate. We must also take efficiency into account. Therefore, the actual shooting percentage is also included in the following table:
When you look at it this way, Johnson is the superior scorer and rebounder, and he is handling this increased scoring production with greater efficiency. However, Jáquez’s role within the Miami Heat offense requires him to create much more for himself (his unassisted field goal rate is 14.7% higher than Johnson’s) and his teammates.
Jaquez’s steal/block rate is also higher than Johnson’s, but only by a slight margin, and that can be explained by the fact that the Heat tend to be a more aggressive defense than the San Antonio Spurs in general (Miami’s opponents’ turnover rate is 1.3% higher).
As many of you already know, the box score almost never tells the whole story, even when paced. A player’s numbers are only as good as their impact on winning, and history is littered with empty calorie stat sheet fillers (I’m looking at you Cam Thomas).
The Dunks & Threes estimated Plus-Minus is widely considered the best publicly available metric of a number because incorporates tracking data. EPM gives Johnson the edge, as he ranks in the 73rd percentile league-wide, while Jáquez ranks just in the 59th percentile.
But again, we need to add more context. One-number metrics are limited to measuring how good a particular player is on their particular team. And as we’ve already established, Jaquez is generally asked to do more for the Heat than Johnson is for the Spurs, so he has more to live up to when it comes to impact metrics.
Therefore, we must also point out how each team fares when these two wings are on the court. When it comes to pure on-court rating, Johnson surpasses Jaquez (see chart below), which makes sense because Johnson plays on a far superior team (the Spurs have 20 more wins than the Heat).
That’s why we also need to include on/off data (how well a team does when you’re on the court compared to when you’re on the bench) in this analysis. Based on this, the Heat are better with Jaquez on the court, while the Spurs are actually better when Johnson is on the bench.
History tells us that to win the 6MOY of the year you absolutely need to be able to score the ball and, in general, you need to be on a good team. Since 2001-02, every player who won the 6MOY award averaged at least 13 points per game. In that same time frame, 19 of those 24 players (79.2%) played for teams that finished in the top four of their conference. The key exceptions to that last stipulation are Lou Williams (twice), Jason Terry (2008-09), Mike Miller (2005-06) and Antawn Jamison (2003-04), all of whom still played on teams that made the playoffs.
Both guys surpass the 13 points per game threshold (although, in Johnson’s case, barely). But Johnson has a clear advantage when it comes to the team’s success. His Spurs are one of the favorites to take home the NBA title, and are currently in second place in the stacked Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Heat will need some gate magic (maybe even against Orlando) to qualify for the postseason.
So while both deserve recognition, it seems history favors Johnson.
Stats in this story were updated ahead of Friday’s games.
