Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst monthly loss since mid-2022, with BTC falling roughly 18.5% in June as the price struggles to hold the $60,000 psychological support level.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Fountain: TradingView
Will Bitcoin’s Bearish Momentum Extend in July or Is BTC Preparing for a Recovery?
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows a major short liquidation “magnetic zone” near $67,600.
- Historically, BTC has gained 7.6% on average in July, while mid-year seasonality points to an even stronger average return of 10.3%.
Bitcoin may reach $75,000 in July
July may become a “bullish month for Bitcoin,” according to analyst Fleh, who predicted that the BTC price will rise towards $75,000 next month.
The bullish thesis is based on Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, which shows a large concentration of short liquidation levels above the current price.
On the monthly chart, the strongest visible liquidity pool sits near $67.645, where the chart shows around $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and about $2.26 billion in cumulative short liquidation leverage.
Binance BTC/USDT Liquidation Heatmap (1 Month). Source: CoinGlass
For beginners, these groups are often called “magnetic zones.” When many leveraged positions are concentrated around the same price zone, the market can move towards that zone because liquidations create forced buying or selling pressure.
In this case, significant liquidity is above the current price of Bitcoin, close to $60,000.
If BTC rebounds and moves towards $67,600, short sellers may be forced to close their positions. Since closing short positions requires buying back Bitcoin, that can add new bullish pressure and fuel a short squeeze.
“I think $BTC bottoms here at 60,000 for now, targeting 75,000 on the upside before any chance of a drop,” Fleh said in a Saturday post.
BTC rises 7.6% on average in July
Bitcoin’s historical monthly returns also support Fleh’s bullish outlook for July.
BTC saw an average gain of 7.6% in July, making it one of its strongest months after a typically weaker June, which saw an average return of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass data highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader.
Bitcoin monthly returns track July performance since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader
The trend has appeared even during bear market years.
For example, Bitcoin rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. More recently, BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and 8.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for another green month ahead.
A separate mid-year seasonality chart also shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% gain over the month, its strongest monthly performance in those years.
Bitcoin performance by month during US midterm election years. Source: More Cryptocurrencies Online
That compares with an average loss of 17% in June, pointing to the possibility of a post-selloff mean-reversion bounce.
Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its July historical average return of 7.6% projects a move towards around $64,500, while the stronger mid-year average of 10.3% points to around $66,100.
A repeat of Bitcoin’s bear market bounces in July 2022 and 2018 would put BTC between $70,000 and $72,500, while a 2020-style July rally would put Fleh’s goal of $75,000 within reach.
BTC Fall Below 200-Week SMA May Extend Decline
Bitcoin’s current drop below its 200-week simple moving average (200-day SMA, the blue line) near $62,445 increases the risk of a further decline in July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A similar loss of long-term moving average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market, when BTC continued lower before bottoming.
Related: Bitcoin faces new risk of capitulation as 50K BTC moved at a loss
The breakout of Bitcoin’s bearish flag increases the odds of a price drop towards $55,000 in July unless BTC quickly reclaims the 200-day SMA.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
