Bitcoin Adds to Bear Market Worries as $49K Becomes a Target

Bitcoin (BTC) gained less than $50,000 ahead of Sunday’s weekly close as bulls failed to recover from ten-month lows.

Key points:

• BTC price targets remain bearish as Bitcoin bulls lick their wounds at ten-month lows.

• CME futures gaps may provide some temporary relief in the new week.

• According to research, Bitcoin is still following the path of previous bear markets by losing realized price support.

BTC Price: “Until now, history repeats itself”

Data from TradingView showed that BTC price action remained below $80,000 after BTC/USD fell more than 6% the previous day.

After losing important bull market support levels, including the real market average of $80,700, Bitcoin left many traders bearish on the coming period.

“$74,400 and $49,180 are the two main downside liquidity targets for this bear market,” X account Cmt_trader predicted.

Trader CryptoBullet drew particular attention to the loss of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), an event that preceded previous bear markets.

$BTC has lost the 21 month EMA 🥶

This is something you can’t even imagine. pic.twitter.com/UFJnoFZmkv

— CriptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) February 1, 2026

Following last week’s bull market EMA crossover, trader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed that history was on the side of a “further continuation to the downside.”

“So far, history is repeating itself, and the decline occurred after the bull market EMA crossing,” he told his X followers.

“Bitcoin has fallen -17% from $90,000 to $78,000 since the crossover took place.”

The crossover involves the 21- and 50-week EMAs, and was last activated in April 2022.

Meanwhile, hopes for a short-term rally hinged on recently opened “gaps” in the CME Group Bitcoin futures market.

Often acting as price “magnets” on the low time frame, the nearest gap was now waiting near $84,000.

Trader Killa therefore predicted that $84,000 would be filled “in the coming weeks.”

$BTC

I closed 50% of the short position. The remaining 50% is left open towards the final objective.

Hoping we fill the CME gap at 84K over the next few weeks. Ideally, BTC will reclaim the low range. If there are no complaints = there is no safe trigger.

Thanks for playing 💸💸 https://t.co/lmj9mKa52j pic.twitter.com/wrKVJUTBht

-Killa (@KillaXBT) January 31, 2026

Bitcoin risks a new “extended bear phase”

Zooming out, the latest on-chain research stayed firmly away from risk over longer time periods.

Related: Is the Bitcoin bear market almost over? Key BTC Metric Undercuts 2022 Low

For on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, spot price trading below the realized price of investors holding BTC for 12 to 18 months was the writing on the wall.

The realized price refers to the aggregate cost basis at which your BTC was last moved.

“Historically, when price breaks and remains below this cost base, market behavior shifts from normal corrections to structural bearish regimes, not short-term pullbacks,” contributor Crazzyblockk warned in a “Quicktake” blog post.

The realized price itself, the research noted, was stable, something that “reinforced its role as overall resistance.”

“When the spot price remains below a stable or rising realized cost, rallies tend to fail as supply seeks balanced exits,” Crazzyblockk added.

“From a cyclical perspective, the combination of pricing below realized cost, negative unrealized profitability, and slowing balance growth has historically aligned with prolonged bear phases.”