Bitcoin (BTC) erased losses after Monday’s Wall Street open, as markets largely ignored the return of war between the United States and Iran.
Key points:
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Bitcoin joins stocks in a muted reaction to the latest deterioration and closure of the Strait of Hormuz between the United States and Iran.
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The price of BTC manages to exceed the 2.5% daily rise despite the lack of resolution.
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Analysis warns that Bitcoin market strength is beginning to be driven by strategy and speculators.
Markets avoid volatility as BTC price stays green
TradingView data showed daily gains of 2.5% for BTC/USD, which had closed the week below $74,000.
US stocks saw a modest decline at the start of the week, but losses remained modest, while oil began to retrace an initial move towards $90.
The repositioning came a day after US President Donald Trump announced a new round of negotiations on Iran in Pakistan.
“My representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan. They will be there tomorrow afternoon for negotiations,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.
Trump appeared to dismiss the importance of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, calling his announcement “bizarre.”
In response, cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital suggested that markets had already readjusted expectations about the outcome of the war and its timeline.
“Despite the pullback coupled with renewed tensions, volatility has remained largely subdued, hovering around year-to-date lows,” he wrote in his latest “Market Color” update.
“This disconnect between realized risk and implied prices suggests that investors are recalibrating expectations toward a more episodic pattern of escalation: intermittent disruptions around the Strait, combined with cycles of rhetoric and de-escalation. Indeed, markets are beginning to value duration rather than intensity, pointing to a conflict that may be longer than initially assumed, but still contained within current limits.”
QCP added that even with the US-Iran ceasefire officially set to expire in a few days, that event is unlikely to be final.
“The base case, for now, remains one of range-bound volatility, rather than a decisive breakout between major asset classes,” he concluded.
Strategy, speculators under the microscope.
Analyzing BTC’s short-term price movements, JA Maartunn, contributor to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, had bad news for bulls.
Related: BTC Price Due to New Highs: Five Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week
Bitcoin’s recent local highs, he suggested, were simply the result of buying pressure from strategy and speculative traders, with sellers stepping in to take profits, halting the rally.
“Where does that leave the price? Not far away,” he summarized in an X thread.
Maartunn said BTC/USD remained stuck below “key resistance,” including short-term holders’ cost base (STH) near $83,000.
“Long-term holders continue to accumulate and the strategy is not yet finished,” he acknowledged.
“The key question: is it enough to push Bitcoin higher? For now, this still looks like a bear market rally… But a strong breakout could quickly change the trend.”
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