Bitcoin (BTC) rewards more to investors who hold it for at least three years, according to data shared by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe.
Key takeaways:
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Historically, holding BTC for at least three years has reduced losses to just 0.70%.
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Bitcoin price predictions for 2026-2027 are grouped between $100,000 and $150,000 in bullish scenarios.
Long-term Bitcoin holders rarely lose
A Bitwise analysis reviews Bitcoin’s price history between July 17, 2010 and February 11, 2026, and concludes that the probability of being in the red drops to just 0.70% when BTC is held for at least three years.
In other words, almost every entry point for three consecutive years in Bitcoin history ended up being profitable. Beyond three years, the risk of loss fell further: 0.2% in five years and 0% in ten years.
Traders who held Bitcoin for less than three years faced a much higher risk of loss.
Day buyers, for example, had a 47.1% chance of finding themselves underwater. That probability remained elevated at 44.7% over a week, 43.2% over a month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding period.
The strongest hands already make 90% profits
The realized price metric also shows decreases in holder losses over multi-year periods.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 high, trading for around $65,000.
That was well above its three- to five-year realized price of $34,780, meaning investors who bought and held through that window still had a roughly 90% gain.
Meanwhile, some traders argue that the current Bitcoin price correction could extend to $30,000.
A move to that level would eliminate much of the cohort cushion, bringing the three- to five-year band closer to break-even. That would further test whether these holders begin to ramp up selling pressure or stay put.
Today, most of the traders who bought Bitcoin in the last two years were underwater.
The cost base of the 6-12 million cohort, entities that have held BTC for up to a year, was around $101,250, leaving them with about 35% unrealized losses as of Saturday.
However, the cost base for the 1- to 2-year cohort was lower, about $78,150, which translates to approximately 15% unrealized losses.
The gap reinforced the same pattern seen in the holding period data: the longer the holding window, the narrower the drawdown tends to be during corrections.
How high can the BTC price go?
Longer-term forecasts are still clustered around a handful of bullish targets for 2026-2027.
For example, global brokerage Bernstein maintained its BTC price of $150,000 for 2026, pointing to relatively modest net outflows of around 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, even as the BTC price fell 50%.
“Bitcoin’s current price development is a mere crisis of confidence,” said Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered warned of a possible “final capitulation” phase that could drag BTC towards $50,000 amid weak ETF flows and a tougher macro backdrop, before recovering towards $100,000 by the end of 2026.
Looking ahead to 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historical “average return” framework points to $122,000 in early 2027, with high odds of BTC trading above that figure.
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