Bitcoin (BTC) could reclaim $100,000 as support and rally towards $107,000 in the coming days, driven by a combination of supporting technical and fundamental metrics.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin breakout is gaining traction, supported by bullish technicals and fading selling pressure.
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Macro signals are bullish, with liquidity expanding and divergence between BTC and gold.
Ascending Triangle and Bullish Cross Increase Chances of BTC Recovery
Bitcoin confirmed its breakout of a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and moved into a textbook post-breakout testing phase.
After breaking above the pattern’s upper boundary near $95,000, BTC pulled back to retest previous resistance as support before bouncing higher, a move typically associated with valid breakouts rather than false moves.
Holding this recovered level keeps the “true breakout” structure intact and preserves the pattern’s measured bullish target near $107,000, derived from adding the triangle’s maximum height to the breakout point, for February.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s daily chart approached a possible bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMA).
The last time BTC printed a similar bullish crossover, the BTC price advanced approximately 17% over the following month, strengthening the case for the continuation of the trend if the signal is confirmed.
Long-term Bitcoin holders reduce sales
Bitcoin’s breakout gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders continued to fade.
Data tracking UTXOs spent by holders of OG Bitcoin, coins dormant for more than five years, showed that the distribution at recent local highs had slowed materially.
Starting in January, the 90-day average of production spent peaked near 2,300 BTC early in the cycle, but then declined to the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting fewer coins are coming to the market.
Early in the rally, OG sales had risen to levels well above the previous bull market, reflecting an unusually attractive exit window created by ETF spot demand, increased liquidity, and institutional participation.
“This suggests that OGs have also slowed their sales,” said analyst DarkFrost, adding:
“Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be enormous, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more towards holding than distribution.”
The slowdown in OG sales also aligned with the largest net outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges since December 2024.
Negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold: bullish for BTC?
Another macro signal aligned with the breakout thesis came from Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold.
In past cases where BTC’s correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin rallied an average of 56% in about two months. The only exception in May 2021 was driven by exogenous shocks, including China’s mining crackdown and forced deleveraging.
Starting in 2026, the situation looked more favorable, supported by increasing global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.
Related: Bitcoin ‘pace’ will return despite gold and Nasdaq attention: Arthur Hayes
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