What I’m thinking about: It takes unprecedented (and unstable) macroeconomic conditions and the decision-making capacity and resilience of elites to win in this environment.
Job postings have plummeted 30%, according to Indeed, from their peak during the last rate adjustment period. ADP reported that the United States lost 32,000 private sector jobs in September. Hiring rates reached 2008-2009 levels.
However, the stock market continues to rise, GDP growth looks solid, and corporate profits are at an all-time high. Most of this is driven by AI, which is almost impossible to reduce or eliminate investment exposure, no matter what sector you focus on.
It is worth mentioning that about 90% of the stock market is owned by the richest 10% of American households, and about 50% by the richest 1% of American households.
If you haven’t heard that before, it makes you think twice, right?
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These figures are published often, but I try to routinely remind myself, given the implications for the general population and overall consumer spending. So I place more importance on macro factors that are impacting a much larger portion of the population (~300 million people).
Let’s start there.
(By the way, for a smooth reading experience, I’m not overloading you with links for stats. Feel free to confirm that yourself, of course.)
Early indicators of market opportunities
I have noticed a clear shift in ~2x margin transactions coming to the closing table for the acquisition. Financial difficulties are dominating again (e.g. problematic mortgages/liens/taxes, healthcare bills, family inheritance situations usually accompanied by money problems, etc.)
He “I had plans to build, but I don’t plan to return to the area.“Sellers? They still exist, but they are less common, or they have that logic but also have a financial problem.
In macroeconomic terms, we are seeing early indicators of greater distress. FHA mortgage delinquencies (first-time or low-income homebuyers) are 12%, as high as they were during the global financial crisis. Google search volume for “help with mortgage” is almost as high as during the global financial crisis. One-third of American adults did not receive necessary medical care due to costs over the past year. Cardboard box production is down 9% in 8 months (double the decline in the global financial crisis). Pet shelter consumption is increasing.
The economic cracks are widening. More sellers will need outlets (and the terrain is first to go compared to housing). Patient capital gains.
Understanding the shrinking pool of wealthy buyers
While distressed sellers create opportunities, the pool of buyers is simultaneously shrinking. This is the tightrope we are walking.
For example, the bifurcation of the labor market is extreme. Job openings in the healthcare sector are up 38% compared to before the pandemic, and job openings for therapists and doctors are up about 85% each (my wife, who is a clinical therapist, loved this news). Software development is down 37%; media and communications are down 36%; marketing is down 23%.
While layoffs have not yet caught up with the hiring decline, investing in deals in high-tech, media-exposed markets like California can be risky. In contrast, markets close to major hospital systems and healthcare facilities (e.g., Boston, Cleveland, and Houston) show more resilience.
Fundamentally, employment data alone does not determine real estate markets (as always, real estate is hyperlocal and bottom-up data always trumps top-down), employment trends need to be matched with days on market, inventory levels, and pricing pressure. For example, Illinois is simply losing jobs, but homes move in an average of 38 days, with the lowest available inventory in the US.
Another key statistic that should stick in your mind: The top 10% of Americans now generate 50% of all consumer spending. This represents an increase from 36% three decades ago, according to the WSJ.
Think about what that means for the country: We are not selling to the average American. We are selling a luxury product to approximately 30 to 35 million people who can actually afford it. Everyone else is barely hanging on.
And be sure to rethink what “luxury” really means. When the average US household can only cover an unplanned expense of ~$500, even an “affordable” $5,000-$10,000 parcel of land is out of reach for most buyers outside of owner financing.
Why aggressive sales teams can’t force market demand
I’ve recently seen some land-based operators looking to hire a VP of Sales or build aggressive disposal teams. And I keep wondering… how profitable is that really?
We consider ourselves elimination experts (with millions in sales to back it up) and you can exhaust the most trusted buyer channels pretty quickly:
- MLS (~80-90%+ real estate transactions)
- Land.com, FB and similar platforms
- Cold calls, text messages or emails directed to area residents and recent surface buyers
- Signage and local marketing.
- Builder/Developer Scope
- Auctions (pause in case of emergency)
We’ve tried all of those, with different results. Once you’ve reached those channels, what’s left? Send mail to all homes in the municipality? Call/text everyone in the county? Door to door sales?
The cost skyrockets when the net margin is already tight from an acquisition cost perspective. Focus deteriorates. It is looking for increasingly unqualified buyers.
As the previous section points out, The country is a luxury good. Think Burberry or Louis Vuitton. They do not send door-to-door salespeople. Their star brands do a lot of the heavy lifting for them, but even they don’t have infinite scope to drive sales.
In a buyer’s market with a limited pool of 10% wealthy buyers, you can’t force sales through sheer sales power. You need the right product, the right price, the right location, the right purchasing channels, and then patience.
Fortunately, land ownership costs are generally low. So if you need to wait out a market (and price cuts aren’t effective), then wait.
If I’m missing something here, I’m really open to feedback. But I’ve spoken to some of the best traders in the space, and no one has cracked the code to a profitable hyper-aggressive layout in this environment that can inevitably cause any piece of inventory to move in the face of a difficult market.
Selective underwriting and market adaptation
We continue to approach this market with extreme caution along with opportunistic actions. We still fund deals, but only the obvious double gross margin plays into a loss-proofing protection.
(We continue) tightening the subscription: 25% lower features? I won’t touch them, no matter the price.
We are looking for distressed sellers in markets where the top 10% of buyers remain stable. Following job growth/loss data. Watching the days in the market like a hawk.
The opportunities exist. They are simply harder to find and require more discipline to underwrite correctly. And we do it so well because no one on our team is “above” the work necessary to win. Everyone gets their hands dirty. There are no shortcuts.
It’s difficult to make economic predictions at a macro level, but I expect a more difficult disposal market overall at least for the foreseeable future. I would love to be wrong, obviously, and for a bull market to return sooner. Furthermore, many people still cling to the expectation that lowering interest rates will enable another housing boom. I’m much more cautious about it. It will certainly help, but I think the effect will be minimal or modest at best, especially when we saw significant rate cuts during the last rate adjustment period and real estate demand continued to decline.
Many operators will struggle or exit the industry.
Those who adjust—those who combine sourcing from distressed sellers with manic analysis of the buyer pool and maintain tight underwriting even when capital is burning a hole in their pockets—will be in for a treat.
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Are you looking for financing from a team that understands both sides of this buyer-seller equation? Serious Land Capital is actively seeking deals with genuine 2X margins and downside protection. We do not stay on the sidelines, but we also do not pretend that macroeconomics does not matter.
Analyze your property today
Originally published in https://seriousland.capital/newsletter/ in October 6, 2025
