In Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, points proved difficult to come by. A combination of two solid defenses, Denver’s starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, Drake Maye looking to avoid turnovers at all costs, and brutal weather that swept snow and wind across the field in the second half, contributed to a final score of 10-7 in favor of New England.
There are three points left as the difference between a potential spot in Super Bowl LX and a spot on the couch watching the game from home.
That difference highlights a first-half decision by Sean Payton. Denver opened the scoring in the first quarter, when Stidham connected with Courtland Sutton from six yards out to lift the Broncos to an early 7-0 lead. The big play on that drive was a long pass from Stidham to Marvin Mims on third-and-10, when the receiver got behind standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Late in the first quarter, Denver began another drive, a possession that lasted well into the second quarter. With New England unable to accomplish anything on offense up to that point, the Broncos entered the Patriots’ red zone, where they ultimately faced a 4th-and-1 situation.
And Payton faced the first big decision of the game.
Denver had momentum and, facing a fourth down at the New England 14-yard line, a chipped field goal would have given them a ten-point lead.
But the coach wanted more.
“I just felt like, man, we had momentum, to get up 14 [points]”I felt like we had a good decision,” Payton said. “I think the feeling was, man, let’s be aggressive.” You know, to get to 14, I was just watching the way our defense played.”
The analyzes were… divided. The “Fourth Down Bot” built by Ben Baldwin gave the slight advantage to the field goal:
Meanwhile, ESPN NFL analyst Seth Walder had a different opinion:
Payton kept his offense on the field, and called a running play. Nickel duo. “A sub-career versus a sub-front,” he said after the game. It was Denver’s best short-yardage play.
But he wanted more time to think about it and called a timeout.
During the timeout he changed his mind and opted for Denver’s best short-yardage passing play. This was Slipper Naked, a bootleg design that would roll Stidham to the right, ideal against man coverage, which is what the Patriots had shown when they initially lined up on fourth down.
“I wanted 14-0,” Payton said later. ESPN’s Seth Wickersham.
However, the Patriots had an ace up their sleeve.
Instead of playing man coverage, New England got into the zone behind a six-man front, with defenders sitting in coverage with their eyes on Stidham. That included security Craig Woodson at the apartment. Not only that, but a pair of New England linemen, Milton Williams and Cory Durden, broke through Denver’s offensive line and put Stidham under immediate pressure.
Instead of a first down, or a ten-point lead with a field goal, New England had the ball.
Speaking after the game, Payton talked about regrets and doubts.
“There are always regrets,” Payton said. “I felt like we’re fourth-and-1 here, close enough and it’s also a decision you make based on the team you’re playing and what you’re seeing on the other side of the ball. So, yeah, there’s always going to be questions.”
It’s easy to find holes in the decision to try on fourth down, given the benefit of hindsight. Given the weather in the second half, given that you were playing with a backup quarterback, and given how well your defense was playing, ten points might have been what the Broncos needed.
And there were almost three quarters of football left, and more plays to change the course of this game. Stidham’s brutal fumble basically gave New England a touchdown, and the Patriots were able to find some success running the ball (and therefore working the clock) in the difficult weather conditions of the second half. That was enough to help them spice up the game.
Still, the three-point difference leads to debates like this.
However, you can also point to ESPN’s analysis, note that there was a recommendation to do so on this play, and admit that sometimes the defense just makes its own play to change the numbers. That appears to be where Payton made his decision after the game.
“I wish I had kept the opening play,” Payton said Sunday night. “The look they showed in the movie and the look we saw was not what we got.”
Unfortunately for Broncos fans, it’s going to be a long spring and they’ll be wondering what could have been.
