After the president of the United States, Donald Trump, suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” in the main US business partners in April 9They were increased in China’s assets. The US commercial encumbrances. In most China imports have risen to 145 percent. Beijing retaliates from his own duties, with 125 percent in US goods.
Trump has long accused China of exploiting the United States in commerce, issuing its tariffs as necessary to revive national manufacturing and remodeling of jobs back to the US. Uu. Hello, I also want to wear rates to finance tax cuts. Most economists are still Trump skeptics will achieve their objectives.
For now, the United States and China are locked in a high -risk chicken game. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which one will keep the course. As Trump approaches his first 100 days in the position for the second time, this is where the War of Rate with China is located:
What is happening with negotiations?
Trump recently played the possibility of ensuring a commercial agreement with China. Last week, the president of the United States saying His tariffs on China “will fall substantially” in the near future.
“We are going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, moving hopes of a decalciation. Hey also said that his administration was negotiating “actively” with the Chinese side without elaborating.
On April 24, however, the China Ministry of Commerce rejected President Trump’s comments, saying that there were There are no talks to be held Between the two countries.
“Any statement on the progress of the China-EE economic and commercial negotiations. UU. It has no basis and has no basic objectives,” said Ministry spokesman He Yadong.
While insisted that Beijing won the duck any economic blow from Washington, Hey said the door was “open” for conversations.
Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating the exemptions for selected US imports. UU., A list of up to 131 products.
Beijing has not made any public statement on the subject.
Has the Tarifa impacted US exports?
Trump presented his radical tariffs about China less than three weeks ago. The consequences for the US business. Even so, warning signs are already flashing.
The data of the US Department of Agriculture.
By April 17, net sales of American soy grains fell by 50 percent compared to the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent drop in weekly soybeans to China, which, until recently, was the largest export destination in the United States for legume.
According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, deputy professor of Economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China reprisal rates will be affected by US farmers. Some can leave the business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would be under tension.
In 2023, the United States exported approximately $ 15 billion or oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy companies.
Are imports to the USA. Will they receive success?
Since the beginning of the Trump rate war, load shipments have collapsed. According to Linellytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese load reserves bound for the US. UU. They fell between 30 and 60 percent in April.
The drastic reduction in sending the third commercial partner of the United States, after Canada and Mexico, has not yet felt. However, in May, thousands of companies will need to replenish their inventories.
According to Bloomberg News, Walmart and Target retail giants told Trump at a meeting last week that buyers see empty shelves and higher prices next month. They also warned that supply shocks could be implemented to Christmas.
Appliances, such as televisions and washing machines, represented 46.4 percent of China’s US imports in 2022. The United States also imports many of their clothing ingredients and China pharmaceutical products. The price of thesis goods will begin to increase from next month.
On April 22, the International Monetary Fund increased its inflation prognosis of the United States to 3 percent in 2025, due to tariffs, a complete percentage point higher than in January. The lender also reduced his prognosis of economic growth in the United States and increased the expectation that the United States will be inclined in recession this year.
How will China’s economy be affected?
Despite the growing tensions between the United States and China, Washington and Beijing are still important commercial partners.
In accordance with the Office of the United States Commercial Representative, the United States imported $ 438.9bn In Chinese products last year.
That is equivalent to approximately 3 percent of China’s total economic production, which continues to depend largely on exports.
In a shared report with its customers this month, Goldman Sachs said he hopes that Trump’s tariffs drag through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China on the axis of 2.4 percentage points.
On the other hand, the senior China officials said that the country can do without the imports of the American farm and energy and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.
Zhao Chenxin, vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non -American imports, national farm and energy production would be sufficient to meet demand.
“Only if we do not buy feeding grains and oleaginous seeds in the United States, it will not have much impact on the grain supply of our country,” Zhao said Monday.
He also noted that there would be a limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stop importing US fossil fuels.
Somehow, experts said, China has been the preparation for this crisis.
Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The United States is one of China’s largest export markets, so tariffs stop the growth of GDP.
Hello, he said that “the United States depends on China for up to 60 percent of its Critical mineral Imports, used in everything, from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow is simply not there, so the United States is more vulnerable. “
Could the United States lose its geopolitical position?
Trump has little hidden his desire to consult the allies in a commercial war. The Administration said it aims to reach free trade agreements with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.
In more general terms, the reports suggest that Washington is asking the commercial partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a previous condition for a safe relief of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.
However, never, American allies seem to oppose a large extent to any economic confrontation with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.
In other places, the United Kingdom Chancellor in the Hacienda, Rachel Reeves, recently told the newspaper Daily Telegraph: “China is the second largest economy in the world, and I think it would be very silly not to participate.”
Many countries are not in a position to leave their commercial ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a large commercial deficit with China. Cut access to Chinese products, both consumer products and inputs for industry, would hurt their economy already slow.
Throughout the world in development, China’s commercial role is equally crucial. Approximately a quarter of the imports of Bangladesh and Cambodia come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia depend also on Beijing for their imports of goods.
“It is difficult to see why countries would do it because they undermine their own commercial interests to try to reduce the United States trade deficit with China,” said Fortunato. “At this point, I think Trump has a short leg and can be forced to flash first in tariffs with China.”
Is Trump losing control of Republican voters?
The Chinese Communist Party does not need to worry about its next electoral cycle. Trump’s Republican party does it, so Beijing has the political advantage in Trump’s commercial war. In a nutshell, he has more time on his side.
For Trump’s party, his saber trache already seems expensive politician. A new Economist The survey shows that Americans who report that Trump’s economic actions have personally hurt them more than they have helped by a margin of 30 points.
And the public approach to the president’s economic management has been low for a while: he had fallen to 37 percent into a Reuters-Psos survey Published on March 31, its lowest score in that survey.
If Trump follows the course, it is likely that his approval ratings will decrease, endangering the fragile republican parties in the United States representatives, and possible the Senate, experts said.
“For these reasons,” said Fortunato, “China does not feel forced to hurry at the negotiating table to ensure a commercial agreement. That will probably fall before Trump.”
